I've been experimenting with check raising the bottom of my range against regs. It's worked out pretty well I think.
This is a bad reg, something like played 3mil hands but overall loser. I kinda remember him messing with me before on this kind of board.
His calling range on the button is pretty wide.
I fire at that flop /w 100% of my range, and I think he'd float me sometimes. His small raise on this flop is kinda weird though, it feels like more of a
A) cheap bluff
B) cheap way to see the river for free.
C) Not likely a Qx, but.... who knows.
Once turn completes a flush and top pair, I planned to check/fold, cuz it completes his flush which is in his range. Now the only hand he's bluffing would be a missed straight draw... Once he checked, flush is out of his range, and Qx is also almost out.
On the river, I considered thin value betting.... but decided its way to thin, since on the river I think most of his range is either complete air, or missed straight draw. He's NEVER strong on the river. So I checked, would've been happy with a show down.
Once he bets, I think it's mostly air. There's a 10% chance that he's doing that with a weak Q, which means he's playing pot control on the turn. Well if he's playing pot control on the turn, that means he doesn't want to put in alot of money on the river, so I check raise to get rid of the last 10% of the Qx. Even though most of his range is air anyways.
I could definitely play a flush this way, and I could possibly play AQ this way to. probably like 20% of the time.
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