Especially when the other person sucks out on you....3 times.... when everytime your decision is trivial, and his decision.... welll.....
http://weaktight.com/1643859
http://weaktight.com/1643863
http://weaktight.com/1643865
so pissed....
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
EUR/JPY #2
well this has fallen a hell alot faster than I originally thought.
I'll limit 1 unit at 132.649. Then i'll add another unit at confirmation.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
grr..
remember my post a few days ago about EUR/GBP? SOB, missed my entry price by like 20 pips!
Oh well, even if it got there, my momentum wouldn't have turned.
hum.... what to do...
I guess I can try to catch the bottom of the wave c (blue box). Although I do think there's still a chance for me to enter at my original target price because this b wave seems awfully short....
So how about that reversal in SLV huh? huh? I kinda wanna do a ST target to reduce a lil risk, but can't find a decent place. Any suggestions?
Also I'd talk about the importance of USD bottoming... but I've already exposed myself to the CHF/USD pair, and that's enough risk for me to take. I'd try to get an entry point for USD... but that takes time... so...
Oh well, even if it got there, my momentum wouldn't have turned.
hum.... what to do...
I guess I can try to catch the bottom of the wave c (blue box). Although I do think there's still a chance for me to enter at my original target price because this b wave seems awfully short....
So how about that reversal in SLV huh? huh? I kinda wanna do a ST target to reduce a lil risk, but can't find a decent place. Any suggestions?
Also I'd talk about the importance of USD bottoming... but I've already exposed myself to the CHF/USD pair, and that's enough risk for me to take. I'd try to get an entry point for USD... but that takes time... so...
Sick call...
Holy shit, I don't know what made me call this... something just told me his shoving range here was air alot.
I actually kissed my mouse when I called... as in kissing my money goodbye.
weaktight | Hand | 99 - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
So Villains has been playing kinda tight preflop, but kinda aggro post flop. He hasn't really been floating me a ton, but if he takes a lead in a hand, he usually 2-3 barrels. I noticed this because mainly I've been card dead and I've been trying to float him. But everytime I try, he seems to 2 barrel. I think I successfully floated him like twice through the session of about 50 hands.
So Here's my hand analysis.... which I'm not even sure makes sense.
Obviously his preflop raising range his huge, and his preflop calling 3bet range isn't small either. I discount AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK because we've been playing pretty aggro preflop and I definitely expect him to bet those for value instead of slowplaying. I may even throw in AQ.
On the folp. I rep medicore hand, therefore he bets his entire range. I
On the turn, nothing changes. I rep mediocre hand, he bets his air, Q10-QA, monster still. 7x and 8x are also discounted because although his calling range is pretty wide, i don't think middle suited connector in there.
On the river, an ok bluff card came for me. Had I shoved this, I think I would be able to get him to fold weak Q. But i thought i really didn't play this hand like a draw. I think that he would think that I would definitely bet the flop with a nut flush draw. So there's nothing I could do but play my cards face up.
His decision is more interesting tho.
So far, I've repped exactly what I had. Probably QK, or QJ type hand and some lower pocket pairs.
So, if he value bets thinly, he might bet Qx.
He would still bet his monsters and flushes.
But what about air? If he'd been barreling as like he was doing the previous hands, this is a GREAT bluff card for him. In his eyes, I shouldn't be calling this with anything less than QK.
So when he shoved, I don't think he's doing it with just Qx, cuz I don't think he's good enough to bet that thin. After all, this is 50NL. I think he would check those, scared of the flush draw.
My decision ended up being, what's more likely,
a) He has flush, or set
b) He has air, and is barreling just like before, to get me off of my faced up hand.
I decided on b.
I actually kissed my mouse when I called... as in kissing my money goodbye.
weaktight | Hand | 99 - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
So Villains has been playing kinda tight preflop, but kinda aggro post flop. He hasn't really been floating me a ton, but if he takes a lead in a hand, he usually 2-3 barrels. I noticed this because mainly I've been card dead and I've been trying to float him. But everytime I try, he seems to 2 barrel. I think I successfully floated him like twice through the session of about 50 hands.
So Here's my hand analysis.... which I'm not even sure makes sense.
Obviously his preflop raising range his huge, and his preflop calling 3bet range isn't small either. I discount AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK because we've been playing pretty aggro preflop and I definitely expect him to bet those for value instead of slowplaying. I may even throw in AQ.
On the folp. I rep medicore hand, therefore he bets his entire range. I
On the turn, nothing changes. I rep mediocre hand, he bets his air, Q10-QA, monster still. 7x and 8x are also discounted because although his calling range is pretty wide, i don't think middle suited connector in there.
On the river, an ok bluff card came for me. Had I shoved this, I think I would be able to get him to fold weak Q. But i thought i really didn't play this hand like a draw. I think that he would think that I would definitely bet the flop with a nut flush draw. So there's nothing I could do but play my cards face up.
His decision is more interesting tho.
So far, I've repped exactly what I had. Probably QK, or QJ type hand and some lower pocket pairs.
So, if he value bets thinly, he might bet Qx.
He would still bet his monsters and flushes.
But what about air? If he'd been barreling as like he was doing the previous hands, this is a GREAT bluff card for him. In his eyes, I shouldn't be calling this with anything less than QK.
So when he shoved, I don't think he's doing it with just Qx, cuz I don't think he's good enough to bet that thin. After all, this is 50NL. I think he would check those, scared of the flush draw.
My decision ended up being, what's more likely,
a) He has flush, or set
b) He has air, and is barreling just like before, to get me off of my faced up hand.
I decided on b.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
weaktight | Hand | KK - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
weaktight | Hand | KK - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
Heads up play.
So I'm not sure if I made the right decision on the turn.
Villian's been playing kinda floaty in position, and likes to make big bets on turn and river.
Preflop he probably raises at least 80% in position. so his range is pretty wide.
When I 3 bet, he actually likes to call there alot more than he should. I'd say 33% of the time.
Flop play is pretty obvious, his range is still wide.
AQ, KQ, JQ, Q10, 910, 89, j10, 99, 33 flush draw, any pocket pair. Air.
Turn is where I don't know if i played it correctly.
IF I betted,
With AQ, KQ, 99, 33, he's obviously going all the way. Although he's been playing his hands kinda fast on the flop also, so these gotta be discounted somehow.
JQ, Q10 calls 1 bet at least, and he "might" find a fold on the riv if i shoved.
910, 89, other pocket pairs calls 1 bet and probably fold the river.
flush draw, j10, calls 1 bet and fold river, OR shoves on top if he's feeling frisky. Although with these draws, I kinda feel he would've raised the flop.
If I checked,
AQ, KQ, 99, 33 bets, and calls a check raise.
JQ, Q10 bets, and 50% call a check raise, 50% fold to a check raise
910, 89, 50% bet-fold to a beck raise, 50% check.
draws bet-call a check raise 80%, check20% (just from what i've seen)
Air, bet-fold to a check raise
So it seems that if I checked the turn,
1) he'd go all the way with the same range of hands
2)hes betting a wider range of his hands
3)With draws, he'd be forced to put the rest of his money in, where if i just betted, he can call turn and fold river if he doesn't hit.
I hope I played the turn correctly.
Heads up play.
So I'm not sure if I made the right decision on the turn.
Villian's been playing kinda floaty in position, and likes to make big bets on turn and river.
Preflop he probably raises at least 80% in position. so his range is pretty wide.
When I 3 bet, he actually likes to call there alot more than he should. I'd say 33% of the time.
Flop play is pretty obvious, his range is still wide.
AQ, KQ, JQ, Q10, 910, 89, j10, 99, 33 flush draw, any pocket pair. Air.
Turn is where I don't know if i played it correctly.
IF I betted,
With AQ, KQ, 99, 33, he's obviously going all the way. Although he's been playing his hands kinda fast on the flop also, so these gotta be discounted somehow.
JQ, Q10 calls 1 bet at least, and he "might" find a fold on the riv if i shoved.
910, 89, other pocket pairs calls 1 bet and probably fold the river.
flush draw, j10, calls 1 bet and fold river, OR shoves on top if he's feeling frisky. Although with these draws, I kinda feel he would've raised the flop.
If I checked,
AQ, KQ, 99, 33 bets, and calls a check raise.
JQ, Q10 bets, and 50% call a check raise, 50% fold to a check raise
910, 89, 50% bet-fold to a beck raise, 50% check.
draws bet-call a check raise 80%, check20% (just from what i've seen)
Air, bet-fold to a check raise
So it seems that if I checked the turn,
1) he'd go all the way with the same range of hands
2)hes betting a wider range of his hands
3)With draws, he'd be forced to put the rest of his money in, where if i just betted, he can call turn and fold river if he doesn't hit.
I hope I played the turn correctly.
Friday, October 23, 2009
USD bottom?
To position myself, I'm entering long on USD/CHF.
Check out the SSI.....
and previous day SSI is there for compare.
.
Check out the SSI.....
and previous day SSI is there for compare.
.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
1st post...
Still holding short positions on slv. This is the alt. count and I'm starting to get concerned.For EUR/USD... I'm gonna have to assume that its almost done...
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