C is not so scary.

Started the Shaun T insanity workout today.

Holy shit. did the 25 min test. almost died. couldn't move for about half an hour after.

Every session after today is like 50 mins.

i'm fucked.

Poker is going worse than I planned. Mainly because I keep makin mistakes. At least I recognize them and try to improve on them.

People(not the authors, but independent testers) keep saying that the Forex Rebellion system works. Since its a very mechanical system, I implemented it in MT4, and I've yet to get good results. Its a "tiny" bit different than what's described, but it shouldn't make THAT much of a difference.

Anyways, I'll try to go through it step by step and see if there are more differences than I recognize.

I also need to do IPOS, and job hunt... today.

Job hunt first. go.

Aight, I think I got my entries down.

Next....

get the stoploss, and establish target....

Went through the tut. for expert advisor, which is a automated trading programming language. It looked pretty intimidating since i'm a pretty bad programmer and I haven't seen C since freshman year. But i guess ever since I've gotten real friendly with MATLAB, this tut. didn't look so bad. Anyways, I wanna go through the rest of this tut. and start doin my own programming. The main reason I wanna do this is to backtest the forex rebellion system. Since to find the expected value of the thing, we need alot of trades. + I wanna do it in different time frames.... and doin that by hand would drive me insane.

Aight, learning how to program in metatrader. Did my first indicator. Today will be my first EA.
Also have to look for a job today.
um... probably no video games or poker today.
oh, also downloading Shaun T's insanity workout. 12 damn gigs. I'll do my workouts to that once its downloaded.

Aight, its not bad.

Over 1 month backtesting period, I had a total of about 50 trades, it made 880 pips.

Unfortunately, the mean of each trade is 18.xx and variance is 121. To be statistically significant, we have to have at least 500 samples-ish.

So I think I'll have to develop a testing system for this. I tried to use ninja trader but it's not cooperating. I guess I can try to do it in metatrader... but that requires learning MQL... or whatever its called. We'll see.

OH SWEET FOUND A NEW SYSTEM THAT I CAN"T WAIT TO GET MY HANDS ON!!

sounds interesting, called forex rebellion.

http://www.forexrebellion.com/

Watched the video a bit, very very systematic. can't wait to test it out.

Don't know where to go on the stock baseline thing now. It's pretty much done. Need new system to test.

Spent the last few days workin on the "let there be my range" thing. Almost done with the turn.

Tomorrow, do the IPOS, and job hunting.

Spend at least 8 hours today on ninja trader. Figured out how to do the best testing a lil, but still can't quite get it to do what i want.

Think i need to take a break from that thing.

So started doing statistical analysis on the data in minitab. First when I ran some pair t tests, because the variance is soooo huge, i needed something like 1000 samples for statistical significance! F THAT! So I took a deeper look at the data, and realized that I think I needed to separate the winning trades and the losing trades and do statistical analysis on them individually. That way the variance won't be all over the place.

So now I'm getting into Ninja trader, specifically the backtesting stuff. Seems very useful. Gonna spend a few days on it, maybe using new scripts and testing them out.

Finished the back testing on the MA and the berk's trend following system.
Tomorrow will be analysis.
Also, watched 2 hours of PS+ video on the flop series.
Worked out.
Overall a good day.

I'm gonna update everyday to keep myself on track.

So far I've actually got some progress on the stock baseline report. I've done backtesting with Berk's system and moving avg system on the daily bar of EUR/USD.

In about half an hour, I have to go to therapy for a few hours.

After dinner, I think I'll start writing the report for my poker range thing. Probably either read the rest of "let there be range", or watch the a video on one of the flop, turn, river video by andrew brokos.

After that, if i feel like it, i'll play a lil poker.

If not, I'll play some Runes of magic.

And also work out tonight sometime.

woohoo! done with finals

YAY!

new chart time

13) Make a chart based on the flop turn river series + let there be range

14) clean my car

15) If I finish all of the above, try the ANN for basketball predictions.

12) read the $1000 book. let there be range

9) Get new tires.... hell this moves up to #1 after finals

10) play everquest with ryan

11) get a new cell phone

more on to do list

5) complete IPOS

6) Do at least 7 hours of PS+ videos/week

7) Double my account to 3k on PS... which may require at least 14 hours/week

8) Study the free 1 week course at http://eminiaddict.com/

Future Projects

Winter break is coming up, can't wait to start several of my projects.
1) Backtest baseline. Compare a few of the automatic systems and see if the gains or losses that they get are statistically different from each other. The main goal of this project is not to find a automatic system that works per say, but to establish a baseline for future programmed trading. Especially for the program that Ryan and Chris are working on, and for the Xtrends old system. If anyone has a systematic trading plan, please let me know and I'll consider adding it in. (Need to work on this at least 20hours/ week)

2) Look for a job. (At least twice a week)

3) Keep working on the ANN. Use Multi layer perceptron and self organizing maps for stock markets. The biggest challange is to find inputs that are significant and can affect the market. (Can only work on this when inspiration hits.)

4) Study nanonoko. (If I have time....) To do this, I'd have to get Hold'em manager working... which seems pretty impossible without re-installing windows.

Something that's very true

I'm reading an article on the Evil Speculator, and something just hits me....
"Being a trader means I am wrong all the time. I don’t need to pretend otherwise, there is no shame in being wrong with such a dynamic as the market. Why should I stand up strong and tell myself and everyone who can read a blog-comment that I’m really right, even though I am losing? I’ll stand up tall and tell you I don’t know a bloody thing. If I was so smart I wouldn’t be here. I’d be a corporate lawyer wondering why there’s only 24 billable hours in a day."

Overall the article is about managing risk, forget about ego, and live to fight another day.
Amazingly, its something I STILL don't know how to do.

Maybe I'll have to step away for a lil while to "punish" myself.

Weekend Update

Was stopped at a loss. Looking at the chart, I don't even know when I got stopped out, maybe I set my stop a lil too close to the bottom.

Decent setup.

Stopped out at a loss. ST was never triggered.


Bullish pic for SLV.... I certainly hope not.

Bearish pic for SLV...

Lunar cycle?

Did EWI just say stocks should fall now because of lunar cycle?????
So I immediately stopped reading after that... its like they are LOOKING for any bearish support they can get.
I "may" have wasted my money for the subscriptions....

Sorry guys, its not that i'm not updating, its just that I have a proposal, a presentation, and an exam this week.

Something to add

Daily and weekly.
Need to short.

Weekend update

Bearish pic of SLV.

Bullish pic of SLV.

Looking for opportunities to enter USO... well, and looking for money to enter too. So if you wanna donate to the Short USO fund... let me know. I accept paypal....


4 hour chart of USD. Hopefully we've bottomed.


So I think there'll be a stop gunning on monday morning. The stops are just too well defined. Easy pickings.

greed killz...

See what happens when I get greedy and lazy and NOT use a stop?
This chart would be a stretch... I mean how often does an expended flat wave 2 happen?


Although a chart of USD tells a different story.
Can I say this entire drop of wave 2 is 3 waves? not likely. If I say its 5 waves, that means there'll be a b and c wave for wave 2.... and if wave a already retraced more than 62% in a zigzag... wave c is gonna be UGLY!



P.S not happy about silver.... caused by the dollar.
P.P.S lost half a stack in a 50NL to an ultra aggro preflop fish on a absolute cooler! 3 betted pot, I'm OOP with top pair and 2nd nut flush draw on 1 toned flop. I bet min reraised, I shove, and he calls.... with the top pair and the nut flush draw....
tilt.

Not a good day :(

Here's a look at SLV. up 5% today, totally wiped out all my profits. I think this is pretty much where I shorted. Am I concerned... a lil. But you can make a case for this graph I posted. its at 62% retracement, + 1.62% of wave a. Anyways, if it goes up at all tomorrow... I'd be very very concerned.

Stopped out after moving the stop to break even. boooo :(


Just a lil update since the last EUR/USD. I wasn't gonna add anything since it only hit
my first red box, but after I drew in some resistances right now, it seems like a good time to short another unit.

I'm gonna live dangerously on this one, aka. without a ST target.... since everyone and their mother thinks that USD has bottomed.

Eur/GBP

Actually entered earlier today, but was busy so didn't set ST and didn't take a pic.

Friends' blogs

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Best in the business.

change of mind

After talking with master #1, I'm no longer comfortable with my EUR/JPY long position.
Hence moving my stop to a lil over break even.

Small entry on EUR/USD

Got 1 unit at my target.
Will (hopefully)add another unit at my 2nd red box.

quick update.

I entered another unit when on the hourly bars, it seems like the initial drop was just a quick
stop gunning.
Now I'm 2 units in.

Plans forward:
If I have a chance, I'll add another unit. (some kind of hourly retracement)
If not, then I have my ST on the pic.
It might be a lil ambitious tho.

Weekend Update.

EUR/GBP

I'd really like it to hit my red box before I enter, but... I dunno... I'll enter if we close the day above the doji.



EUR/JPY

Entered 1 unit at the 132.4717. Plan was to wait to enter another unit once there's reversal confirmation. Stop below e. However, the action seems to suggest that we will not stop at level.
Not happy.


Still holding onto SLV, would like to take some ST profits but... don't know
Have entered some SDS with mr. marc, aka master #2.
So i'm 100% invested in my stock market accountss.

Still holding onto positions for USD/CHF. Approaching ST target.
Looking into getting into EUR/USD, on a good pullback as suggested by the master himself, Ryan Sanden.
Also looking into getting into USD/CAD because the graphs are soooo pretty.




I'll look for opportunities to enter on the dailys on a pull back.

HU is soooo personal

Especially when the other person sucks out on you....3 times.... when everytime your decision is trivial, and his decision.... welll.....
http://weaktight.com/1643859
http://weaktight.com/1643863
http://weaktight.com/1643865



so pissed....

EUR/JPY #2

well this has fallen a hell alot faster than I originally thought.
I'll limit 1 unit at 132.649. Then i'll add another unit at confirmation.

My EUR/JPY trade

has concluded. for a total profit of more than 500 pips (including ST)

grr..

remember my post a few days ago about EUR/GBP? SOB, missed my entry price by like 20 pips!
Oh well, even if it got there, my momentum wouldn't have turned.
hum.... what to do...
I guess I can try to catch the bottom of the wave c (blue box). Although I do think there's still a chance for me to enter at my original target price because this b wave seems awfully short....













So how about that reversal in SLV huh? huh? I kinda wanna do a ST target to reduce a lil risk, but can't find a decent place. Any suggestions?





Also I'd talk about the importance of USD bottoming... but I've already exposed myself to the CHF/USD pair, and that's enough risk for me to take. I'd try to get an entry point for USD... but that takes time... so...

Sick call...

Holy shit, I don't know what made me call this... something just told me his shoving range here was air alot.
I actually kissed my mouse when I called... as in kissing my money goodbye.

weaktight | Hand | 99 - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

So Villains has been playing kinda tight preflop, but kinda aggro post flop. He hasn't really been floating me a ton, but if he takes a lead in a hand, he usually 2-3 barrels. I noticed this because mainly I've been card dead and I've been trying to float him. But everytime I try, he seems to 2 barrel. I think I successfully floated him like twice through the session of about 50 hands.
So Here's my hand analysis.... which I'm not even sure makes sense.

Obviously his preflop raising range his huge, and his preflop calling 3bet range isn't small either. I discount AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK because we've been playing pretty aggro preflop and I definitely expect him to bet those for value instead of slowplaying. I may even throw in AQ.
On the folp. I rep medicore hand, therefore he bets his entire range. I
On the turn, nothing changes. I rep mediocre hand, he bets his air, Q10-QA, monster still. 7x and 8x are also discounted because although his calling range is pretty wide, i don't think middle suited connector in there.
On the river, an ok bluff card came for me. Had I shoved this, I think I would be able to get him to fold weak Q. But i thought i really didn't play this hand like a draw. I think that he would think that I would definitely bet the flop with a nut flush draw. So there's nothing I could do but play my cards face up.
His decision is more interesting tho.
So far, I've repped exactly what I had. Probably QK, or QJ type hand and some lower pocket pairs.
So, if he value bets thinly, he might bet Qx.
He would still bet his monsters and flushes.
But what about air? If he'd been barreling as like he was doing the previous hands, this is a GREAT bluff card for him. In his eyes, I shouldn't be calling this with anything less than QK.

So when he shoved, I don't think he's doing it with just Qx, cuz I don't think he's good enough to bet that thin. After all, this is 50NL. I think he would check those, scared of the flush draw.
My decision ended up being, what's more likely,
a) He has flush, or set
b) He has air, and is barreling just like before, to get me off of my faced up hand.

I decided on b.

weaktight | Hand | KK - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

weaktight | Hand | KK - $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem

Heads up play.
So I'm not sure if I made the right decision on the turn.
Villian's been playing kinda floaty in position, and likes to make big bets on turn and river.

Preflop he probably raises at least 80% in position. so his range is pretty wide.
When I 3 bet, he actually likes to call there alot more than he should. I'd say 33% of the time.
Flop play is pretty obvious, his range is still wide.
AQ, KQ, JQ, Q10, 910, 89, j10, 99, 33 flush draw, any pocket pair. Air.
Turn is where I don't know if i played it correctly.
IF I betted,
With AQ, KQ, 99, 33, he's obviously going all the way. Although he's been playing his hands kinda fast on the flop also, so these gotta be discounted somehow.
JQ, Q10 calls 1 bet at least, and he "might" find a fold on the riv if i shoved.
910, 89, other pocket pairs calls 1 bet and probably fold the river.
flush draw, j10, calls 1 bet and fold river, OR shoves on top if he's feeling frisky. Although with these draws, I kinda feel he would've raised the flop.
If I checked,
AQ, KQ, 99, 33 bets, and calls a check raise.
JQ, Q10 bets, and 50% call a check raise, 50% fold to a check raise
910, 89, 50% bet-fold to a beck raise, 50% check.
draws bet-call a check raise 80%, check20% (just from what i've seen)
Air, bet-fold to a check raise

So it seems that if I checked the turn,
1) he'd go all the way with the same range of hands
2)hes betting a wider range of his hands
3)With draws, he'd be forced to put the rest of his money in, where if i just betted, he can call turn and fold river if he doesn't hit.

I hope I played the turn correctly.

USD bottom?

To position myself, I'm entering long on USD/CHF.
Check out the SSI.....
and previous day SSI is there for compare.









.

if you fail, try and try again... until u run out of money

well that sucked

I never got filled... i was like 10 pips away of gettin filled.

anticipating

a pic is worth a thousand words

1st post...

Still holding short positions on slv. This is the alt. count and I'm starting to get concerned.
For EUR/USD... I'm gonna have to assume that its almost done...